commodity demand vic — VIC1

Victoria's spot price sits at $63.84/MWh with demand at 4,850 MW as of 06:30 AEST — a sharp escalation from the $50–$55/MWh range that dominated the 19:00–20:00 AEST window as demand climbed through the evening. The price trajectory today tells a clear story: prices were deeply negative throughout the overnight trough (reaching as low as -$34.10/MWh around 13:10 AEST with demand at ~3,987 MW), then turned positive as demand recovered through the morning, with the $50/MWh+ band establishing itself consistently once demand pushed above ~4,500 MW from around 05:00 AEST onward. The current demand level of 4,851 MW is still well below today's daytime peak of roughly 6,150 MW seen around 18:50 AEST, confirming the market is now in an ascending evening demand phase.

The price sensitivity to demand is pronounced and non-linear. The overnight period sustained negative prices across a broad 3,900–5,400 MW demand band — renewable oversupply, primarily from wind's 869 MW contribution, is suppressing the marginal cost stack even as demand rises. Brown coal sits at a steady 1,767 MW baseload with OCGT providing 98 MW of peaking support, and solar is contributing zero at this hour. Carbon intensity is 0.8119 tCO2/MWh with renewables at just 31.78% — a significant deterioration from the overnight window where renewables held above 50% and prices were negative. That shift reflects reduced wind penetration relative to rising demand rather than any change in committed generation.

The near-term forecast points to prices softening from current levels before a second lift. AEMO's pre-dispatch forecasts for 07:00 AEST are converging around $57.18/MWh — a modest step down from the current $63.84/MWh — consistent with demand stabilising or easing slightly before the Saturday morning ramp. The load window data signals prices collapsing back toward zero or negative territory from approximately 08:00 AEST (UTC 22:00), which aligns with rooftop solar generation beginning to offset grid demand on what is a fully overcast day (100% cloud cover). Solar potential is rated zero, so any demand relief from distributed solar will be constrained — a material upside risk to midday prices relative to a clear-sky Saturday.

Traders should note AEMO has issued a sustained run of "prices subject to review" notices covering intervals from 05:15 through 06:30 AEST today under NER clause 3.9.2B (manifestly incorrect inputs), with several earlier intervals confirmed unchanged. The active reviews covering 05:45–06:30 AEST mean prices in the current window carry revision risk. Grid stress is scored at 76.2 — elevated for a Saturday — reflecting the demand-to-renewable ratio rather than a supply adequacy issue. The key price watch today is whether cloud cover suppresses solar recovery enough to sustain positive prices through the 09:00–12:00 AEST window, where Saturday demand typically troughs and negative prices are the seasonal norm.