Regional Outlook — QLD1: Thursday 26 March 2026

Queensland's spot price sits at $91.75/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with total demand at 6,819 MW. That price represents a significant retreat from the evening peak, which spiked to $253.38/MWh at 06:10 AEST before collapsing rapidly over the following 20 minutes. Looking across the past 24 hours, the day began with near-zero and negative prices through the early morning hours (floor prints as low as -$3.01/MWh around 10:20 AEST yesterday), then escalated through the morning demand ramp to a sustained band of $120–$146/MWh between roughly 17:00 and 19:30 AEST, before the late-evening spike. The 24-hour volume-weighted average sits comfortably above $80/MWh, driven by those sustained morning and afternoon peaks.

The generation mix is overwhelmingly coal-dominated. Black coal is supplying 3,165 MW — the clear baseload workhorse — with hydro contributing 86 MW and solar at just 10 MW, reflecting the overnight/early morning window. Gas OCGT output is negligible at 0.16 MW. Total reported scheduled generation in the data sits at approximately 3,261 MW against demand of 6,819 MW, implying significant unscheduled generation, rooftop solar (minimal at this hour), and net interstate flows making up the balance. Renewable penetration is at just 2.95% — near the floor observed across the entire day. The carbon history confirms renewables peaked at around 23% during the overnight trough (when demand fell below 5,100 MW and wind/hydro carried relatively more weight) but have compressed back toward 3% as coal re-dispatches into morning demand. Carbon intensity sits at 0.854 tCO2/MWh — among the highest in the NEM and consistent with QLD1's coal-heavy profile throughout the daytime hours.

Predispatch forecasts are pointing to a material price decline from current levels. The forward curve for the 07:00 AEST trading window targets $72.75/MWh, a step down of roughly $19/MWh from the current price. The load window analysis reinforces this: the optimal demand-shifting window from approximately 09:00 AEST is forecast at $~$31–$35/MWh, representing savings of 57–61% against the prevailing price. This is the classic Friday morning solar shoulder effect — as rooftop and utility solar ramps through the 08:00–12:00 AEST window, black coal dispatch retreats and prices soften. Flexibility managers should be positioning curtailable loads accordingly.

On market notices, there are no active contingency reclassifications directly affecting QLD1 transmission infrastructure today. The active notices relate to VIC1 (Yallourn–Rowville 220 kV lines, reclassified and subsequently cancelled due to lightning activity), TAS1 (Sheffield–George Town 220 kV, since resolved), and NSW1 (Bannaby–Mt Piper 500 kV, constraint set N-5A6+5A7_N-2 invoked, which includes NSW1-QLD1 and N-Q-MNSP1 interconnectors on the left-hand side — now cancelled). That NSW1 constraint, while resolved, is relevant context: when it was active it constrained northward flows on the Q