NEM Overview

South Australia is printing a negative spot price of -$20/MWh as wind generation at 594 MW drives local supply well beyond the 1,534 MW demand base, with the V-SA and V-S-MNSP1 interconnectors both binding at their export limits (323 MW and 183 MW respectively) as the grid pushes excess supply into Victoria. That export pressure keeps Victorian prices soft at $31.23/MWh despite 1,707 MW of wind generation there — Victoria is simultaneously absorbing SA surplus and exporting heavily northward into NSW, with VIC1-NSW1 flow sitting at 881 MW and binding at its export limit. Tasmania's Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is at zero flow this interval, isolating the island which is running entirely on renewables (hydro 344 MW, wind 188 MW) at a carbon intensity of 0.00 tCO2/MWh and commanding the highest price in the NEM at $96.24/MWh on 1,141 MW of demand.

NSW and Queensland are running on thermal-dominated mixes and bearing the consequences. NSW sits at $87.43/MWh with black coal supplying 5,431 MW of the 8,092 MW load and renewable penetration a thin 8%, yielding a carbon intensity of 0.81 tCO2/MWh. Queensland is the most carbon-intensive region at 0.86 tCO2/MWh — black coal covers 3,155 MW with hydro contributing 86 MW but solar at zero given 100% cloud cover across the state — and prices are firm at $91.75/MWh on 6,819 MW of demand. NEM-wide renewable penetration scores at just 26.1%, reflecting the overnight/early morning timing with solar potential at zero across all regions.

The notable operational story today is the recurrent lightning-driven contingency reclassifications that have cycled through VIC1, TAS1, NSW1, and SA1 transmission corridors throughout the past 24 hours. The Yallourn–Rowville 7 & 8 220 kV lines in Victoria have been reclassified and cancelled twice each, with the most recent reclassification active from 00:24 AEST. These transient credible contingency events reflect active storm activity tracking across the southeast. Additionally, AEMO reviewed and confirmed prices for several midday intervals under the Manifestly Incorrect Inputs clause, all of which were left unchanged — suggesting any aberrant dispatch signals during the solar period did not result in price corrections. Grid stress scores at 52.9 warrant close attention heading into this morning's demand ramp, particularly with VIC1-NSW1 and V-SA interconnectors already at their binding export limits.