commodity demand vic — VIC1

Victoria's spot price sits at $33.33/MWh with demand at 5,856 MW at 06:35 AEST — a sharp contrast to the prolonged negative and near-zero pricing that dominated the midday and afternoon period, when solar and wind generation overwhelmed demand sitting below 4,200 MW. The price-demand relationship today has been textbook: as demand climbed from its overnight trough of around 3,910 MW (circa 02:35 AEST) through the morning ramp, prices transitioned from deeply negative territory (touching -$61.70/MWh at 14:15 AEST during peak solar output) toward positive ground. The evening demand build — rising from roughly 4,010 MW at 03:00 AEST to the current 5,856 MW — has been the primary driver of the price recovery, with the $33/MWh range established as wind (1,726 MW) and brown coal (1,287 MW) carry the bulk of the dispatch stack with solar now at zero.

The forecast trajectory points to a modest easing from current levels. AEMO's most recent forecast for the 07:00 AEST trading period prices at approximately $19.23/MWh, stepping up to around $31.52–$31.54/MWh in later forecasts as the 16:30–17:30 AEST window was revised upward — reflecting the market's sensitivity to how quickly demand peaks and then retreats. The load window data confirms that prices are expected to fall back toward the $8.95/MWh range by 07:00 AEST and drift negative again by 08:30–09:00 AEST as morning solar generation re-enters the dispatch stack, eroding the price support that current demand levels are providing.

The key demand-side risk today is the rate of decline from the current 5,856 MW evening peak. The data shows demand peaked near 6,013 MW around 18:05 AEST earlier in the session; the current level represents a slight pull-back from that intraday high. As heating demand sits at just 4.1 kWh equivalent with temperatures at 13.9°C in Melbourne, residential load is not driving a sustained peak — the evening demand build is largely commercial and industrial in character, meaning it drops away relatively quickly. A AEMO market notice issued at 00:24 AEST confirmed cancellation of a credible contingency reclassification on the Yallourn–Rowville 220 kV lines (initially triggered by lightning earlier in the day), removing a transmission constraint that had been invoked and then revoked twice across the session — this circuit uncertainty added a modest grid stress premium to afternoon pricing but is now resolved.

Traders should note the day's defining price dynamic: a 1,900 MW swing in demand between the midday minimum (~3,910 MW) and the current evening load produced a price swing of roughly $95/MWh — from -$62/MWh to +$33/MWh. As demand retreats overnight and rooftop solar returns after sunrise, the negative price windows forecast for 08:00–15:00 AEST tomorrow are likely to reprise today's pattern, with the Yallourn generation stack providing a structural price floor once solar ramps back in.