regional qld — QLD1

The Queensland spot price sits at $134/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, demand running at 6,754 MW — a clear evening ramp from the overnight trough where prices repeatedly touched near-zero and negative territory (reaching as low as -$3.99/MWh between roughly 10:00–11:00 AEST). The 24-hour price arc is textbook: prices collapsed through the overnight minimum-demand period, then staged a sharp morning recovery from 15:00 AEST onwards, peaking at $138.97/MWh at 06:15 AEST before settling at current levels. The intraday average through the business day has tracked persistently in the $95–$125/MWh band, with one notable spike to $231.73/MWh at 19:10 AEST — the single high-price event in the dataset.

The generation mix is heavily coal-dominated. Black coal is contributing 3,012.67 MW, hydro 85.76 MW, solar a negligible 6.18 MW, and gas OCGT just 0.16 MW — totalling roughly 3,105 MW of visible scheduled plant against 6,754 MW of total demand, indicating significant generation not captured in the dispatch data (likely rooftop PV near zero at this hour, and additional thermal). Renewable penetration sits at just 2.96%, the lowest point in today's carbon history. Carbon intensity is 0.8539 tCO2/MWh — among the highest readings of the past 24 hours, up sharply from the overnight low of 0.6764 tCO2/MWh recorded around 09:30 AEST when wind and other renewables were contributing up to 23% of output. The grid is at its dirtiest right now with solar offline and coal carrying the load.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST trading interval are converging tightly in the $102.75–$105.53/MWh range across multiple forecast runs, signalling the market expects prices to ease from current levels as the evening peak rolls through and demand softens. Load-shifting windows point to excellent price opportunities from 08:30 AEST onward, with indicative prices falling to the $10–$40/MWh range through the early morning hours — consistent with the overnight pattern seen today. Flexible loads and battery charging should target the 09:00–10:00 AEST window where forecast savings relative to current prices exceed $117/MWh.

The key active market notice for QLD1 is a contingency reclassification issued at 06:11 AEST (Market Notice 137161): AEMO has reclassified the simultaneous trip of the Kamerunga–Barron Gorge 7184 132kV and Kamerunga–Barron Gorge 7143 132kV lines as a credible contingency event due to lightning activity in the Far North Queensland region. This notice remains active until further notice with no constraint sets currently invoked, but traders should monitor for any dispatch constraint activation on the North Queensland network should weather conditions deteriorate. A large volume of earlier price review notices (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs reviews for overnight intervals from 02:10–03:55 AEST) have largely resolved with prices confirmed unchanged, removing residual settlement uncertainty for those periods.