VIC1 experienced sustained negative pricing at approximately $−1.15/MWh across 8 intervals from 23:55 on 2 August to 00:30 on 3 August 2026. The negative prices persisted despite a substantial generation mix comprising 2,462 MW of wind, 1,217 MW of solar, and 3,153 MW of brown coal generation.
The negative pricing in VIC1 reflects an excess of supply relative to demand during the overnight period, with high renewable generation (wind and solar totalling 3,680 MW) combining with baseload brown coal output to create oversupply. Multiple binding constraints with marginal values between $3.70 and $5.08 per MWh (F_T+RREG_0050 and F_TASCAP_RREG_0220) indicate that network limitations were constraining the flow of excess generation, preventing its dispatch to other regions or its economic curtailment, forcing generators to pay for offtake.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.