NSW1 experienced sustained negative pricing at approximately –$7 to –$10/MWh across two intervals during the early morning period of 3 September 2026. The negative pricing persisted across multiple consecutive settlement periods, with the minimum price reaching –$10/MWh.
The negative pricing was driven by high instantaneous renewable generation, with solar and wind collectively contributing 4,366 MW against moderate coal generation of 1,987 MW and minimal flexible gas capacity. Multiple binding constraints with substantial marginal values—including F_T+LREG_0050 at $26.99/MWh and F_TASCAP_LREG_0210 at $7.70/MWh—indicate network transmission limitations that prevented efficient evacuation of surplus generation, forcing prices below zero to incentivise load acceptance and generation curtailment.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.