VIC1 experienced sustained negative pricing at -$0.05/MWh across two consecutive intervals (22:30 and 22:35 on 11 June 2026), representing a minor pricing anomaly. This followed a period of stable positive pricing around $10/MWh and occurred within a generation environment characterised by high wind output (approximately 6,529 MW combined) and significant brown coal generation (3,822 MW).
The negative pricing was likely driven by excess supply relative to demand during low-demand evening periods, with renewable generation (wind and solar totalling approximately 6,763 MW) and inflexible coal generation creating downward pressure on prices. Multiple binding constraints with modest marginal values (ranging from approximately $5.64 to $10.26/MWh) suggest network or system constraints were active, but their relatively modest impact indicates they were not the primary driver of the negative excursion; rather, the fundamental supply-demand imbalance appears to be the determining factor.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.