VIC1 experienced sustained negative pricing with a minimum of −$4.67/MWh across two consecutive intervals (00:15 and 00:20 on 23 August 2026). Prices briefly dipped into negative territory before returning to positive levels, indicating a localised oversupply condition in the region.
The negative pricing occurred during a period of substantial renewable generation, with solar (1,257.96 MW) and wind (381.54 MW and 352.15 MW) collectively dominating the generation mix alongside brown coal baseload (3,042.47 MW), creating downward pressure on prices. A binding constraint with marginal value of $4.22 was active across multiple intervals during this period, suggesting physical network or operational limits restricted the region's ability to export excess generation or import demand support, forcing local prices negative to manage surplus supply.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.