A binding constraint V_T_NIL_BL1 in VIC1 reached a moderate shadow price of $281.17/MWh during the early morning period of 13 July 2026, coinciding with volatile regional reference prices that ranged from -$717.97 to +$238.88/MWh. The constraint binding alongside several other transmission-related constraints suggests network congestion management was actively constraining the market during this period.
The high marginal value of the V_T_NIL_BL1 constraint indicates it was actively limiting dispatch in VIC1, with the constraint's shadow price directly contributing to price formation in the region. The binding constraint occurred within a generation environment dominated by coal (4183 MW) and wind (6749 MW combined), and was accompanied by simultaneous binding on multiple other constraints with very high marginal values (T_BLINK_TV_NGZ at $8.352M), suggesting the network was under significant transmission pressure that required active constraint management to maintain system security.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.