NSW1 experienced sustained negative pricing during the early morning of 22 May 2026, with the region hitting a minimum of -$1.46/MWh across 2 consecutive intervals (04:20 and 04:25). Prices fell sharply from $70.01/MWh at 03:55 before reaching zero at 04:10, then dipping into negative territory before recovering to $22.06/MWh by 04:45.
The negative pricing was driven by an oversupply of renewable generation, with solar and wind combined contributing over 3,800 MW during the low-demand early morning period, whilst dispatchable thermal generation (coal and gas) remained inflexible at approximately 4,021 MW. The binding transmission constraints (F_TASCAP_RREG_0220 and F_I+RREG_0220) indicate that network limitations prevented efficient distribution of excess renewable energy, forcing generators to accept negative returns to avoid curtailment and maintain system stability.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.