Tasmania experienced high renewable penetration at 91.9% during the early morning period of 13 August 2026, with hydro and wind generation dominating the fuel mix at approximately 1,400 MW combined. Regional reference prices exhibited volatility, ranging from $70.18/MWh to $124.05/MWh across the five-minute settlement intervals, with notable spikes occurring at 06:30.
The high renewable penetration reflects strong hydro generation output (approximately 975 MW average) supplemented by wind (approximately 365 MW average), displacing thermal generation to minimal levels. Price volatility and the binding constraints with marginal values of up to $27.43 suggest that network or operating constraints limited the ability to fully export or utilise available renewable generation, forcing locational scarcity pricing despite abundant renewable supply in the region.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.