A binding constraint (T_BLINK_TV_NGZ) in TAS1 reached an exceptionally high shadow price of $7.308 million on 24 June 2026 during the early morning period (03:45–04:10 UTC). Regional electricity prices remained relatively moderate at $79–91/MWh despite the extreme constraint marginal value, with Tasmania's generation mix dominated by hydro output (1,217–1,380 MW) supplemented by modest wind and gas-OCGT contributions.
The extreme shadow price on constraint T_BLINK_TV_NGZ indicates severe physical congestion or operational limits preventing efficient energy dispatch, despite adequate generation capacity being available in the region. The disparity between the exceptionally high constraint marginal value and moderate spot prices suggests the constraint was binding due to transmission or system security limitations rather than insufficient generation, with hydro generation remaining stable and wind output relatively steady throughout the event window.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.