VIC1 experienced a severe negative pricing event on 28 July 2026, with a minimum price of -$504.65/MWh sustained over 2 intervals around 11:20–11:25. This followed normal pricing in the preceding intervals, suggesting a rapid and substantial market imbalance.
The negative pricing occurred during a period of high renewable generation, with wind contributing approximately 3,007–3,367 MW and battery storage providing 491 MW, whilst coal generation remained at 4,722 MW. A binding constraint with marginal values between $4.97–$9.24/MWh was active during the event, indicating that network limitations restricted the market's ability to dispatch this generation mix, forcing the price mechanism to penalise excess supply and incentivise load or curtailment.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.