Tasmania experienced high renewable penetration of 91.7% during the settlement period of 24 September 2026 from 07:05 to 07:30 AEST, with hydro and wind generation dominating the supply mix at approximately 1,984 MW combined across the observation window. Regional reference prices (RRP) increased steadily from $93.03/MWh to $116.41/MWh over this five-period window, rising by 25% despite the high renewable contribution.
The binding constraint F_T+RREG_0050, which carried a consistent marginal value of $4.12/MWh throughout the period, likely contributed to the rising price trajectory as the region adjusted dispatch to accommodate operational limits. The price escalation despite abundant renewable generation suggests that system constraints rather than fuel scarcity were the primary driver of wholesale pricing during this high-penetration episode, with the binding constraint effectively setting the price signal for marginal dispatch adjustments.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.