VIC1 experienced sustained negative pricing over 8 intervals during the early morning of 2 August 2026, with prices ranging from -$6.51/MWh to -$9.52/MWh. The three-interval minimum of -$8/MWh reflects a period of excess generation relative to local demand during overnight hours.
The negative pricing was driven by high renewable generation, particularly wind output of approximately 2,900 MW combined across the state's wind fleet and solar generation of 750 MW, coinciding with low overnight demand. A binding constraint (F_TASCAP_RREG_0220) with marginal values ranging from $4.66–$6.81/MWh was active throughout the period, indicating that constraint-driven scarcity pricing was unable to prevent the negative outcomes, suggesting the constraint limited opportunities to export excess generation or reduce local supply.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.