VIC1 experienced a moderate price spike reaching $313.82/MWh at 06:45 on 24 June 2026, sustained above $308/MWh across two consecutive intervals. This represented a sharp escalation from the $246.80/MWh observed 5 minutes earlier, suggesting a sudden constraint or supply tightness event during the early morning period.
The spike coincided with binding constraints on multiple inter-regional transfer paths, with marginal values ranging from $3.91 to $7.51/MWh, indicating physical congestion limiting power flows into Victoria. The generation mix shows substantial reliance on thermal generation (3,956.72 MW brown coal, 907.67 MW OCGT) with limited renewable contribution (approximately 600 MW combined wind and solar), typical of dawn periods, suggesting limited supply flexibility to relieve the constrained corridors during this demand ramp period.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.