A binding constraint (T_BLINK_TV_NGZ) in TAS1 reached an exceptionally high shadow price of $7.308 million per MWh during the early morning of 25 June 2026, significantly elevating the regional reference price to around $90/MWh before moderating to approximately $78/MWh. The Tasmanian generation mix during this period was dominated by hydroelectric output (approximately 1296–1426 MW across multiple units) with minor contributions from wind and gas-fired generation.
The extreme shadow price on constraint T_BLINK_TV_NGZ indicates that this constraint was the primary binding limitation on the system during this interval, creating scarcity value that drove the settlement price elevation. The binding constraint's marginal value was orders of magnitude higher than other active constraints (F_S+TBTU_L1 at $66.60 and others in the $14–20 range), suggesting it was the dominant supply-limiting factor in TAS1 during this period.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.