A binding constraint (T_BLINK_TV_NGZ) in TAS1 reached an exceptionally high shadow price of $8.352 million during the evening dispatch period of 12 July 2026. The constraint became active as Tasmania's generation mix remained dominated by hydro and wind sources (approximately 1000–1050 MW hydro and 500–510 MW wind), with zero gas-fired generation available.
The extreme marginal value of the binding constraint T_BLINK_TV_NGZ suggests a severe physical limitation was reached in the network or generation system, with supply unable to respond to demand within the constraint's operating envelope. The sustained high hydro and wind generation during low-demand late evening hours, combined with the complete absence of dispatchable gas-fired capacity, left Tasmania with limited flexibility to manage the binding constraint, driving its shadow price to economically significant levels.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.