VIC1 experienced sustained negative pricing over a 25-minute period (09:45–10:15) on 12 June 2026, with prices reaching a floor of −$0.10/MWh and dipping to −$4.68/MWh in the interval ending 09:55. The region maintained high renewable generation, particularly from wind sources (combined ~7,400 MW), alongside significant brown coal output (~4,033 MW).
The negative pricing reflects an oversupply condition in which aggregate generation exceeded demand, forcing generators to pay for dispatch. The binding constraint F_T+NIL_MG_RECL_R6 (with marginal values ranging from $12.64–$73.15/MWh) indicates that this constraint became active in limiting potential further generation or export, acting as a key price setter during the event. The high wind output combined with the inflexible brown coal generation created a supply-demand imbalance that the market resolved through negative prices and constraint-driven dispatch management.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.