VIC1 experienced sustained negative pricing with a floor of −$181.24/MWh across two intervals on 13 July 2026, occurring within a broader pattern of extreme price volatility spanning from −$211.92/MWh to +$191.55/MWh. The negative prices coincided with high wind generation (3031–3223 MW) and substantial brown coal output (4310 MW), creating an oversupply scenario.
The negative prices were driven by a constraint identified as F_T+RREG_0050, which remained binding across all intervals with marginal values of approximately $5/MWh, indicating this constraint was the active price floor mechanism during the event. The combination of elevated wind generation and inflexible thermal output during periods of low demand created conditions where generation exceeded flexible load and export capacity, forcing the pricing mechanism into negative territory to encourage load curtailment and dispatch reduction.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.