A major binding constraint (T_BLINK_TV_NGZ) with an exceptionally high shadow price of $7.308M operated in TAS1 on 24 June 2026 around 11:30–12:05 AEST, coinciding with a sharp spike in regional reference price from $71.17/MWh to a peak of $96.83/MWh. The constraint remained active across multiple settlement intervals as Tasmanian generation was dominated by approximately 1250–1380 MW of hydro output supplemented by 44–50 MW of wind.
The extreme marginal value of the binding constraint T_BLINK_TV_NGZ indicates severe transmission or operational limitation within TAS1 that sharply constrained dispatch and forced price uplift. The coincident price spike to $96.83/MWh and persistence of elevated prices ($70–95/MWh) across the window reflects the constraint's binding effect on regional supply, suggesting demand or interconnection dynamics exceeded available unconstrained capacity despite substantial hydro generation contribution.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.