Tasmania achieved 100% renewable generation on 23 June 2026 between 20:05 and 20:40 UTC, with hydro and wind supplying the entire load. Regional reference prices rose from 70.2 to 79.24 $/MWh over the 35-minute period, representing a 13% increase despite abundant renewable supply.
The price trajectory reflects binding constraint F_T+NIL_MG_RECL_R6 consistently holding a marginal value between 12.81 and 14.17 $/MWh throughout the period. This constraint's persistent binding status and substantial marginal value, combined with steady or declining hydro output (1146.4 MW to 1010.68 MW) and modest wind generation (41.91 to 55.16 MW), indicates that network or dispatch limitations rather than fuel scarcity were constraining supply and driving price uplift. The binding constraint was the primary mechanism elevating prices despite renewable penetration being complete.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.