Tasmania experienced an extreme price spike reaching $23,200/MWh in the 06:20 interval on 13 July 2026, followed by a sharp correction to $300.10 in the subsequent interval. This represents a dramatic departure from the preceding baseline of $20–105/MWh and occurred despite adequate generation capacity across hydro, wind and gas sources totalling approximately 3.2 GW.
The spike was driven by a binding constraint (T_BLINK_TV_NGZ) with an exceptionally high marginal value of $8.352 million per MWh, indicating severe scarcity in a critical network element. The constraint remained binding in consecutive intervals, suggesting a persistent physical limitation rather than a transient event. The rapid price normalisation in the following interval to $300.10—whilst still elevated—indicates the binding constraint constraint was either relieved or demand-side response activated, though the underlying generation mix remained relatively stable.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.