Tasmania region (TAS1) experienced high renewable penetration at 92.3%, driven by substantial hydro and wind generation totalling approximately 3,420 MW. Regional prices remained depressed at 8–9 $/MWh for most of the period before spiking to 27.97 $/MWh in the final settlement interval.
The consistently low prices during the high-renewable period reflect the abundant supply of low-marginal-cost hydro and wind generation. The price spike in the final settlement interval (20:30) coincides with a binding constraint (F_TASCAP_RREG_0220) exhibiting a marginal value of 2.99 $/MWh, suggesting that constraint tightening reduced available supply and forced uplift in dispatch costs, offsetting the earlier oversupply conditions.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.