VIC1 experienced sustained negative pricing over two consecutive intervals on 2 September 2026, with the minimum spot price reaching −$6.53/MWh at 22:10. The pricing event occurred during a period of high renewable generation (wind and solar totalling approximately 7,021 MW) combined with inflexible brown coal baseload supply (2,870 MW).
The negative pricing was driven by excess renewable generation that could not be economically withdrawn, requiring the market to pay generators to reduce output. Multiple binding constraints with positive marginal values (ranging from $4.46 to $7.34/MWh) indicate export or network limitations were active, preventing VIC1 from freely exporting surplus wind and solar output, thereby trapping generation within the region and suppressing spot prices into negative territory.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.