Tasmania experienced high renewable penetration of 92.7% on 23 July 2026 between 20:05 and 20:30 UTC, with hydro and wind generation comprising the dominant supply mix totalling approximately 3,584 MW. Regional reference prices (RRP) ranged from $26.85/MWh to $52.92/MWh during this period, with prices generally elevated despite the high renewable supply.
The elevated prices despite abundant renewable generation were likely driven by binding constraint F_T+RREG_0050, which consistently held a marginal value of $2.66–$2.67/MWh throughout the observation window, indicating persistent constraint-induced scarcity. This suggests that transmission or operational limitations restricted the ability to fully utilise the available renewable capacity, forcing the market to rely on higher-cost dispatchable generation (GAS_OCGT at ~125 MW) to meet demand or maintain system security, thereby supporting the elevated RRP levels.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.