VIC1 experienced sustained negative pricing at −$1.10/MWh for two consecutive 5-minute intervals (23:10–23:15 on 13 July 2026), representing a minor severity event. Prices had declined sharply from $22.67/MWh earlier in the evening, settling into negative territory during the late evening period.
The negative pricing reflects an oversupply condition in VIC1, driven by high renewable generation (approximately 6,449 MW of wind and 242 MW of solar) combined with substantial brown coal baseload (4,290 MW), which together generated more supply than required at that demand level. Multiple binding constraints with marginal values between $3.92 and $5.00 indicate network or system limitations were active, preventing efficient redistribution of excess generation and forcing the market into negative pricing to incentivise load or curtailment in the constrained region.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.