Tasmania experienced a major constraint event on 11 June 2026 at approximately 07:20–07:50 AEST, with constraint T_BLINK_TV_NGZ binding at an exceptionally high shadow price of $7,308,000/MWh. Regional prices remained elevated at $97.04/MWh for three consecutive five-minute intervals before declining to $80–87/MWh as the event progressed.
The extreme marginal value of constraint T_BLINK_TV_NGZ indicates severe transmission or operational limitation preventing market-clearing supply flows into or within Tasmania. Hydro generation dominated the region's supply stack at 1,233–1,336 MW across the settlement intervals, with minimal wind and gas-fired generation (totalling ~100 MW combined), suggesting limited flexibility to relieve the binding constraint through conventional generation adjustments. The persistence of the binding constraint across multiple settlement intervals, despite elevated prices that would normally incentivise dispatch changes, points to a structural or physical network limitation rather than a transient supply-demand imbalance.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.