Tasmania experienced high renewable penetration of 90.5% on 2 August 2026 at 20:05–20:40 UTC, driven by substantial hydro generation (912–1002 MW) and wind output (195–272 MW) with minimal thermal support (124–126 MW gas OCGT). Regional reference prices remained moderate, ranging from $29.86/MWh to $39.61/MWh across the settlement intervals.
The high renewable penetration reflects favourable hydro and wind resource availability in the period, with hydro generation alone accounting for approximately 60% of total output. A binding constraint (F_T+LREG_0050) with a marginal value of approximately $20.14–$20.16/MWh was active across all intervals, indicating this constraint limited the economic benefit of the abundant renewable supply and likely constrained further renewable export or absorption, contributing to the relatively flat price profile despite high renewable availability.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.