A binding constraint (T_BLINK_TV_NGZ) with an exceptionally high shadow price of $8.352 million per MWh activated in TAS1 on 22 September 2026 around midday, causing Regional Reference Price (RRP) volatility in the range of $88–$103/MWh. The constraint remained binding across multiple settlement intervals, indicating a sustained transmission or operational limitation affecting the region.
The extremely elevated marginal value of the binding constraint T_BLINK_TV_NGZ—vastly exceeding typical constraint costs—suggests a severe physical or operational bottleneck was active during this period. The generation mix, dominated by hydro output (approximately 3.7 GW combined), with minimal wind and gas support, indicates Tasmania was operating near capacity-constrained conditions, causing the binding constraint to suppress potential dispatch and drive the shadow price to economically significant levels.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.