VIC1 experienced sustained negative pricing during early morning hours on 14 July 2026, with the region reaching −$12.75/MWh across two intervals. The negative pricing persisted across a six-interval window from 04:35 to 05:05, indicating a period of structural oversupply in the Victorian market.
The negative pricing was driven by high renewable generation, particularly wind output of approximately 3022–3211 MW combined with solar generation of 589 MW, occurring during a low-demand period (early morning). With binding constraints F_T+RREG_0050 (with marginal values between 2.93 and 4.93) and F_TASCAP_RREG_0220 (3.38) active during this period, inflexible brown coal generation at 3329.5 MW was unable to reduce output sufficiently to clear the oversupply, forcing negative prices to incentivise demand response and curtailment.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.