QLD1 experienced sustained negative pricing reaching -$3.73/MWh over a 2-interval period on 13 August 2026 around 22:55–23:00 AEST. The region's generation mix was dominated by solar (approximately 5,573 MW combined) and black coal (3,421 MW), with relatively modest gas and wind contribution, creating an oversupply condition during the evening period.
The negative pricing was driven by high renewable generation coinciding with inflexible conventional baseload output, creating excess supply that the region struggled to dispatch. A binding constraint (NSA_Q_GSTONE34_250) with marginal values ranging from $68.82–$72.55/MWh restricted the region's ability to export surplus generation, forcing the local market price into negative territory as dispatchable capacity had to be backed down or curtailed.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.