Tasmania experienced a severe constraint event on 19 September 2026 around 14:00–14:25 UTC, with the binding constraint T_BLINK_TV_NGZ reaching an exceptionally high shadow price of $8.352 million per MWh. Regional reference prices collapsed from $41.06 to $0.06/MWh over the four settlement periods as the constraint tightened, despite stable hydro and wind generation throughout the period.
The binding constraint T_BLINK_TV_NGZ with its extreme marginal value of $8.352 million indicates a severe physical limitation preventing power flows or dispatch. The rapid price decline alongside relatively constant generation (approximately 2,000–2,100 MW total) suggests the constraint became progressively more binding as demand or system conditions changed, forcing the market to clear at progressively lower prices as economic dispatch was increasingly restricted by the binding constraint. The presence of five concurrent binding constraints, with T_BLINK_TV_NGZ dominating by orders of magnitude, points to a cascading constraint interaction rather than a single infrastructure failure.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.