A binding constraint (T_BLINK_TV_NGZ) in TAS1 reached an exceptionally high shadow price of $7.31 million on 16 June 2026 around 21:45–22:00 UTC, whilst regional spot prices averaged $86–$91/MWh over the same period. The constraint remained active alongside several other binding constraints, indicating multiple simultaneous limitations on network or system operation during this evening demand period.
The primary driver was the binding constraint T_BLINK_TV_NGZ reaching its marginal value of $7.31 million, indicating severe scarcity or physical limitation in the region at that time. Hydro-dominated generation (approximately 1080–1095 MW) and moderate wind output (133–183 MW) were insufficient to relieve the constraint, whilst OCGT capacity of 0–25 MW provided minimal supplementary flexibility, suggesting that available dispatchable resources were inadequate to resolve the constraint congestion during this settlement period.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.