VIC1 experienced sustained negative pricing at −$1.10/MWh across two consecutive intervals (15:15 and 15:20 on 13 July 2026), with prices remaining negative or near-zero throughout the broader period. The negative pricing occurred during a period of high wind generation (approximately 6,356 MW combined) and brown coal output (3,313 MW), indicating structural oversupply in the region.
The negative pricing reflects excess supply relative to demand in VIC1 during this half-hour window. The large wind contribution combined with inflexible brown coal generation created downward pressure on prices. Binding constraints—including F_TASCAP_RREG_0220 with marginal values up to $10.66/MWh and F_T+RREG_0050 at $4.02/MWh—indicate that network or reserve constraints were active, limiting the ability to export excess generation and forcing the market price into negative territory to incentivise load and reduce generation.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.