Victoria experienced sustained negative pricing at $-1.1/MWh across two consecutive settlement intervals (18:45 and 18:50 on 1 August 2026). Prices declined sharply from $0.62/MWh earlier in the period, indicating a significant shift in market conditions over approximately 30 minutes.
High wind generation (approximately 2.8 GW combined across wind units) combined with stable coal-fired output (3.3 GW brown coal) created excess supply relative to demand in VIC1. Binding constraints with marginal values around $3–4/MWh indicate network or ramping limitations preventing efficient distribution of this supply, forcing the market into negative pricing to incentivise load or curtail inflexible generation.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.