Tasmania achieved 100% renewable energy penetration during the settlement period of 19 September 2026, 07:00–07:30 AEST, with generation comprising hydroelectric (649.6–699.6 MW) and wind (205.1–250.6 MW) resources. Real-time regional reference prices (RRP) exhibited high volatility, ranging from $13.95–$78.61/MWh, with a sharp dip to $13.95/MWh at 07:05 followed by recovery to the $50–$60 range.
The extreme price volatility despite 100% renewable generation indicates constraint-driven pricing rather than fuel-cost dynamics. Multiple binding constraints with material marginal values—particularly F_T+LREG_0050 ($12.74/MWh), F_TASCAP_RREG_0220 ($7.99/MWh), and F_T+RREG_0050 ($4.75/MWh)—demonstrate that network or operating limitations actively suppressed or elevated spot prices throughout the period. The sharp price collapse to $13.95/MWh at 07:05 suggests a brief relief in constraint tightness, whilst subsequent price recovery to $50–$60/MWh reflects renewed constraint binding as renewable output fluctuated or interconnector/regional requirements tightened.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.