Tasmania achieved 91.8% renewable penetration during the evening of 25 July 2026, with hydro and wind generation totalling approximately 1,815 MW against total output of around 1,965 MW. Regional prices fluctuated between $15.20 and $63.40/MWh across the five-minute settlement periods, with notable volatility including a sharp dip to $15.20 at 20:35.
The high renewable penetration reflects substantial concurrent hydro output (averaging ~1,045 MW) and strong wind generation (averaging ~367 MW), which together displaced thermal generation to minimal levels. Price volatility during this period was likely driven by binding constraints including F_TASCAP_RREG_0220 (marginal value $4.03) and F_T+RREG_0050 (marginal value $3.66), which suggest operational limits were active; the sharp price trough at 20:35 may indicate a brief relaxation of binding constraints or a temporary reduction in demand-side pressure.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.