A major binding constraint (T_BLINK_TV_NGZ) with an exceptionally high marginal value of $7,308,000/MWh occurred in TAS1 on 14 June 2026 around 21:30, causing regional prices to spike to $85.22/MWh. The constraint became active during an evening period when Tasmania's generation mix was dominated by approximately 3,730 MW of hydro capacity alongside modest wind and gas-fired generation.
The extreme shadow price on the binding constraint T_BLINK_TV_NGZ indicates a severe physical limitation preventing Tasmania from meeting demand or maintaining required system security conditions. The magnitude of the marginal value—vastly exceeding the concurrent RRP—suggests the constraint was preventing economically beneficial generation or transfers and created artificial scarcity that drove the regional price spike during the 21:30 settlement interval.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.