VIC1 experienced sustained negative pricing with a minimum of -$30.68/MWh across 2 intervals on 13 July 2026, including an extreme price of -$757.07/MWh in the 00:15 settlement. The event occurred during a period of high renewable generation, with wind contributing over 6,800 MW combined and solar adding 531 MW to the generation mix.
The negative pricing was primarily driven by binding constraint T_BLINK_TV_NGZ, which carried an exceptionally high marginal value of $8.352 million, indicating severe scarcity value attached to this constraint. This constraint binding, combined with elevated renewable generation that displaced conventional synchronous capacity, created a situation where the system required negative prices to incentivise load or curtail marginal generation. The additional binding constraint F_T+NIL_MRWF_TG_R6 (marginal value $381.55) reinforces that multiple network or operational boundaries were active in driving the pricing outcome.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.