Tasmania experienced high renewable penetration of 87.7% during the morning of 12 September 2026, driven primarily by hydro generation exceeding 1,200 MW across multiple settlement intervals. Regional reference prices remained relatively modest, ranging between $79.80–$85.20/MWh, reflecting the abundant renewable supply.
The high renewable penetration was supported by substantial hydro output (averaging approximately 762 MW across the generation mix) combined with modest gas-fired generation (averaging ~124 MW). Multiple binding constraints with marginal values between $4.01–$5.01/MWh, including repeated instances of constraint F_T+RREG_0050, indicate that physical or network limitations were active during this period, likely constraining dispatch and moderating price pressure despite excess renewable capacity.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.