Victoria (VIC1) experienced minor sustained negative pricing over two intervals on 30 May 2026, with prices falling to approximately –$0.10/MWh around 17:00, following earlier positive pricing in the $5–$6/MWh range. The brief negative-pricing window reflects an oversupply condition in a tight dispatch window, before prices recovered to near zero.
High wind generation (approximately 2,955–2,929 MW combined) combined with baseload brown coal output (3,139 MW) created a supply–demand imbalance during the late afternoon period, pushing marginal generation costs below zero when demand was insufficient to absorb the renewable output without curtailment. The absence of gas-fired generation, battery storage, and solar output (which had ceased by evening) removed flexible supply-side options that would typically absorb or displace excess wind, leaving coal units and wind as the primary marginal suppliers and forcing negative pricing to encourage demand response or generation withdrawal.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.