Tasmania achieved 100% renewable energy penetration on 7 July 2026 between 20:05 and 20:30 UTC, with hydro generation dominating the supply mix at approximately 1,442–1,569 MW and minimal wind contribution. Prices rose steadily from $101.57/MWh to $116.08/MWh over the 25-minute period despite 100% renewable generation.
The price escalation despite high renewable penetration was driven by binding constraints with material marginal values: constraint F_T+RREG_0050 imposed a shadow price ranging from $10.22/MWh to $15.25/MWh across four of the five binding constraint occurrences, and constraint F_TASCAP_RREG_0220 contributed a further $7.14/MWh. These constraints, not fuel scarcity or generation shortage, appear to have constrained the power system and lifted the marginal cost of supply during this period.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.