Tasmania achieved 100% renewable generation during the 06:35–07:05 period on 3 September 2026, with hydro and wind collectively meeting all demand. Regional Reference Prices (RRP) fluctuated between $33.84 and $109.47/MWh, with a notable spike to $109.47/MWh at 06:45, followed by a sharp decline to $33.84/MWh by 07:05.
The RRP volatility despite high renewable penetration reflects binding constraint activity rather than generation scarcity. Multiple binding constraints carried significant marginal values (up to $49.62/MWh for F_T+LREG_0050 and $32.79/MWh for F_TASCAP_RREG_0220), indicating that network or regulatory limits on renewable output export or regional flows—rather than insufficient generation—drove pricing. The sharp price decline at 07:05 coincides with a constraint marginal value dropping to $7.79/MWh, suggesting constraint relaxation allowed increased supply into the pricing mechanism.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.