Victoria experienced sustained negative pricing in VIC1, reaching a minimum of −$3.84/MWh across 2 intervals on 14 September 2026 at 22:50–22:55. Prices declined sharply from $8.31/MWh to negative territory over a 30-minute window, indicating a significant supply–demand imbalance.
High renewable generation (wind at 2181–2220 MW and solar at 447 MW) combined with baseload brown coal output (3205 MW) created excess generation during an off-peak evening period when demand was low. The binding constraint F_TASCAP_RREG_0220 with marginal values of $4.97–$6.80/MWh suggests limited export capacity or network constraints restricted the ability to dispatch excess generation, forcing prices downward as generators competed to stay on the dispatch stack.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.