NSW1 experienced sustained negative pricing at approximately 04:30–04:35 on 24 July 2026, with prices falling to −$8.72/MWh across two consecutive intervals. The negative pricing occurred during a period of high renewable generation, particularly solar (2,999 MW) and wind (688 MW) output, which exceeded immediate demand requirements.
The negative pricing was driven by a binding constraint (F_T+RREG_0050) with a marginal value of $2.67/MWh during the negative price intervals, indicating physical or operational limits preventing efficient dispatch of excess generation. With coal generation at 3,413 MW and substantial solar and wind output totalling approximately 3,687 MW, the system faced a supply surplus that could not be economically managed within the constraint boundary, forcing generators to accept negative prices to clear the market.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.