NSW1 experienced sustained negative pricing during the 01:45–01:50 settlement intervals on 30 August 2026, with the minimum price reaching −$4.81/MWh. The negative pricing followed a period of zero and near-zero prices, indicating severe oversupply conditions in the region.
The generation mix was dominated by solar (3,403.87 MW) and black coal (2,545.25 MW) during daytime/early-afternoon conditions, creating a structural surplus that could not be readily curtailed or exported. Binding constraint F_T+LREG_0050 was active across all intervals with declining marginal values (from $22.62/MWh to $17.76/MWh), indicating an active transmission or network constraint was limiting the region's ability to export excess supply, forcing prices negative to incentivise demand response and reduce generation.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.