A binding constraint (T_BLINK_TV_NGZ) in TAS1 reached an exceptionally high shadow price of $7,308,000/MWh during the evening of 29 June 2026, approximately 140 times the concurrent regional reference price. Tasmanian prices spiked to $55.48/MWh at 18:00 before falling sharply to $25.20/MWh in the subsequent interval, indicating constraint relief.
The binding constraint T_BLINK_TV_NGZ with its extreme marginal value was the primary driver of the price spike, suggesting a critical transmission or operational limit was reached. The sharp price collapse in the 18:05 interval combined with steady hydro and wind generation (approximately 1,150–1,186 MW combined across the period) indicates the constraint was likely relieved through either dispatch adjustment or a time-dependent operational change rather than generation failure.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.