VIC1 experienced sustained negative pricing at −$3.42/MWh across two intervals (03:15 and 03:25 on 2 September 2026) during early morning hours. The price collapse occurred in a dispatch interval characterised by high renewable generation (wind and solar totalling 2,973 MW) and substantial brown coal output (3,218 MW), creating a structural oversupply condition.
The negative pricing reflects excess supply relative to demand in a low-demand early morning period, with high-output wind and solar forcing down marginal costs. Multiple binding constraints with marginal values of $3.44/MWh indicate dispatch limitations that prevented the region from exporting surplus renewable generation or adjusting conventional generator output, creating localised oversupply that pushed prices negative to incentivise consumption and reduce generation.
Causal analysis generated by gridIQ's synthesis model from live AEMO market data: dispatch prices, generation mix, interconnector flows and market notices in the interval surrounding the event.